The disappearing budget constraint on EU agricultural policy

Concern over budgetary costs has been the traditional driving force behind changes to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. While the recent MacSharry reform of this policy was more related to external pressures arising from the need to reach an agreement on agriculture in the GATT Uruguay Round, many expect the budgetary constraint to re-emerge towards the end of this decade, particularly in the light of the impending accession of a number of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This paper argues that it is unlikely that there will be any budgetary need to further reform Europe's agricultural policy to accommodate the CEECs. Applying the agricultural guideline to estimate resources and using a simple forecasting model of FEOGA Guarantee budget expenditure, the paper demonstrates that, under a range of plausible assumptions for the key variables affecting resources and expenditure, a significant positive margin should emerge between available resources and the cost of EU agricultural policy by the beginning of the next decade. This margin should be sufficient to pay the estimated costs of extending the present CAP to the CEEC countries without further significant reform. However, even though the budget constraint on EU farm policy may disappear, other factors, such as GATT disciplines and concern about agriculture's impact on the environment, will remain as pressures for further CAP reform. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd