A general model for assessment of the carbon sequestration potential of afforestation projects

Among the objectives of afforestation projects, carbon sequestration is attracting increasing political attention. Therefore, there is a need for understanding the carbon sequestration 'mechanism' and for ex-ante assessment of the sequestration potential of afforestation projects. Such assessment must be based on parameter estimates that are inherently uncertain, making the basis for applying an advanced sequestration model weak. This paper presents a transparent, simple and general model for quantification of the carbon sequestration in afforestation projects. The model can easily be modified so as to fit specific conditions, and it is held sufficiently reliable when taking into account the ex-ante character of the decision problem. The use of the model is exemplified by application to a yield table for Sitka spruce. Limitations of the model framework and its application in combination with scenarios of climate change are discussed.