Does the Exchange Rate and Its Volatility Matter for International Trade in Ethiopia?

This study was carried out to investigate the impact of the Ethiopian exchange rate and its volatility on international trade. Trade openness was used as a proxy for international trade in the study. The study's general objective was to investigate how international trade responds to exchange rate levels and volatility. The study relied solely on secondary time-series data spanning the years 1992 to 2019. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model was used in the study to investigate the long-term relationship between exchange rate level, volatility, and international trade performance. An error correction model was used to estimate the variables in the short term. To conduct the regression analysis, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and inflation were used as control variables. The finding of the study implies that: in the short term, the exchange rate level was found to negatively and significantly influence international trade. However, exchange rate volatility positively and significantly affects international trade both in the short and in the long term. In addition, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, and inflation have a positive effect on international trade both in the short term and long term. This finding lends support to the J-curve effects, which suggest an initial loss in the short term followed by a dramatic gain in the long term. However, the findings of this study suggest that there is no significant gain from international trade to justify currency depreciation in Ethiopia.