Better technology forecasting using systematic innovation methods

An evolved version of the Soviet-originated Theory of Inventive Problem Solving, TRIZ, contains a series of generically predictable technology and business evolution trends uncovered from the systematic analysis of over 2 million patents, academic journals and business texts. The current state of the art-recorded for the first time together in this paper-now bring the total number of generic technical trends to over 30, and the number of business trends to over 20. The paper describes some of the newly discovered trends, and their incorporation into a design method that allows individuals and businesses to first establish the relative maturity of their current systems, and then, more importantly, to identify areas where 'evolutionary potential' exists. The paper introduces this concept of evolutionary potential-defined as the difference between the relative maturity of the current system, and the point where it has reached the limits of each of the evolution trends-through a number of case study examples focused on the design and evolution of complex systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.