Prediction of marginal bone loss and tooth loss - a prospective study over 20 years

Aim: The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of potential risk predictors/risk factors on the longitudinal marginal bone loss and tooth loss over 20 years. Material and Methods: A clinical and radiographic investigation of a sample of 513 individuals was performed in 1970 and 1990. Stepwise multiple regression analyses were adopted to calculate the influence of the potential risk predictors/ risk factors on the longitudinal marginal bone loss and tooth loss. Results: Russell's Periodontal Index in 1970 and smoking were significantly and positively correlated to longitudinal bone loss. Russell's Periodontal Index, marginal bone loss and Plaque Index at baseline were positively and significantly correlated to the longitudinal tooth loss, whilst age, the number of missing teeth in 1970 and the number of school years showed a significant negative correlation to number of teeth lost between 1970 and 1990. Conclusions: Smoking was found to be a significant risk factor in marginal bone loss, while plaque was a risk factor in tooth loss. However, the regression models explained a low percentage of the total variance, especially for marginal bone loss.