Spatially explicit sustainability analysis of long-term fiber supply in Georgia, USA

We present here a proof of concept for a new study of the forest management practices in Georgia, USA. The study is based on a long-term wood supply analysis of the current forest resources. We pursue questions about the sustainable bases of existing practices and significance of hypothetical scenarios relating to various management practices and regulatory constraints. The study is based on research in areas of regional growth and yield dynamics, intensive silviculture, and forest practices code. At this introductory stage the analysis is based on basic inventory information provided by the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory Analysis unit, approximate locations of about 10,000 permanent sample plots, limited GIS information, Landsat TM imagery, and simplified assumptions about the spatial distribution of different forest cover types. We present here the preliminary results and identify the directions and resources for future developments. The results of the simulations suggest that the current forest practices in Georgia are based on sound and sustainable principles with the existing harvesting far below the maximum sustainable level. The preliminary analysis, for the current land base held constant, suggests that at the current harvesting level of approximately 42 million m(3) a year, the volume of mature and over-mature stands available for harvesting in Georgia may initially decrease during the first several years from about 550 to 400 million m(3), but after that it would increase to nearly double and eventually level off, exceeding 550 million m(3). The total volume of Georgia forests is expected to increase in the first 50 years from its current level of about 950 to 1150 million m(3), and then it will gradually decrease to about 1 billion m(3) over the next one-and-a-half century. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.