Bayesian Network Modelling for "Direct Farm" Mode based Agricultural Supply Chain Risk

The contradiction between the increasing demand for agricultural products and the backward circulation level of agricultural products in China is increasingly obvious. "Direct Farm" brings other potential risks while improving the circulation efficiency of agricultural products. In this context, we use Bayesian network method to develop a risk early warning system of the "Direct Farm" based agricultural supply chain. Through the system's forward reasoning and reverse reasoning functions, we can help supply chain managers to forecast and analyze the risks of agricultural supply chain and take timely measures to avoid risks, so as to ensure the stable operation of the "Direct Farm" based agricultural supply chain.