Inter-annual variability in breeding census data across species and regions

There is an intense interest in long-term trends of species abundance that may reflect, for example, climate change or conservation actions. Less well studied are patterns in the magnitude of inter-annual variability in abundance across large spatial scales. We collated abundance time-series for 133 nesting sites across the globe of the seven sea turtle species. Inter-annual variability in nest numbers was lowest in loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), Kemp's ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) and flatback turtle (Natator depressus) and highest in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), likely reflecting their lower trophic position compared to other species and hence tighter coupling of food availability to environmental conditions each year. The annual number of nests in green turtles could vary by 60-fold between successive years. We identified regional patterns in the magnitude of inter-annual variability in green turtle nest numbers, variability being highest for nesting beaches around Australia and lowest in the western Indian Ocean and equatorial Atlantic. These regional patterns are likely linked to corresponding patterns of environmental variability with, for example, areas subjected environmental extremes as part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) showing high inter-annual variability in nest numbers.