Multi-scenario and multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections for the plain areas of the Pannonian Basin

This study is focusing on the projected temperature and precipitation changes in the plain areas of Serbia and Hungary. The simulated changes are calculated for two future time periods (namely, 2021.2050 and 2069.2098) on a monthly scale, and they are compared to the 1971. 2000 reference period. In order to estimate the uncertainties deriving from different sources, 10 RCM simulations driven by different GCMs, and three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were taken into account. According to the obtained results, higher temperature values are likely to occur in the future, and warmer conditions tend to occur if greater radiative forcing change is assumed. In the case of precipitation, larger variability emerges, but for July, a clear decreasing trend is projected, especially in the case of RCP8.5; while from October to June an increase is projected by most of the RCM simulations. Rainfall variability index shows that the number of dry years will be 5-20 from 30-year time series in the mid-century, and slightly less in the late-century. Extreme dry conditions will tend to occur in 2-12 years overall during 30-year future time periods in the northern plain subregions, and somewhat more frequently in the southern subregions (i.e., in Serbia). The obtained results do not show substantial differences depending on the RCP scenarios, since the scenario plays a less important role in the overall uncertainty of climatic projections compared to the model physics and parameterizations or the internal climatic variability.