ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY FACTORS IN DESIGN OF RESILIENT SUPPLY CHAINS

Modern engineered systems, both manufacturing and service-related include supply chains systems, are becoming increasingly complex. The complexity of these systems is multi-dimensional, namely: structural, spatial and temporal. The issue of assessing the risk of disruption in supply chains, in particular global ones, has been becoming more and more important in recent years. It results from the efforts to minimize costs by continuous processes of Lean Manufacturing, Lean Logistics, and Lean Management and the increasing number and intensity of external threats. The aim of this paper is to present the concept of the supply chain resilience assessment in the case of disruptive events occurrence. Firstly, the methods for modeling uncertainty in terms of their application to assess this type of risk will be discussed, and then the concept of agent base model enabling a quantitative assessment of supply chain resilience will be presented.