Modeling Evolution of Drought Conditions in the 21st Century to Substantiate Measures for Adaption of Russian Agriculture to Climate Impacts

The spatiotemporal evolution of actual and potential evapotranspiration and water deficit (stress) of the irrigated surfaces during the 21st century influenced by the changes in the meteorological drought characteristics is analyzed for the southern regions of European Russia for individual months of the growing season. The joint system of the MGO regional climate model and the mesoscale atmospheric boundary layer model is used to estimate regional and local climate change. The effect of the evapotranspiration evaluation method on the resulting estimates is investigated. The expansion of the territory affected by droughts of various severity is projected for all months of the growing season. It is shown that the major risk for vegetation due to water deficit during droughts may be expected at the beginning of the growing season.