CARBON LOCK-IN: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS

被引：23
|
作者：
van der Meijden, Gerard
Smulders, Sjak
机构：
[1] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[2] Tinbergen Inst, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[3] Tilburg Univ, Tilburg, Netherlands
[4] CESifo, Munich, Germany
来源：
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2017年 / 58卷 / 04期
关键词：
DIRECTED TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; DYNAMICS; GROWTH; INDETERMINACY; MODELS;
D O I：
10.1111/iere.12255
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. This article presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil-saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises.
引用
收藏
页码：1371 / 1415
页数：45
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