GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS TO TURKEY: A CAUSALITY STUDY

This study aimed to examine the causal connection between geopolitical risks and Turkey's international tourist arrivals. The causality was tested between risk indices and foreign visitor demand on monthly data. Turkey was selected because many geopolitical risks had occurred in the last two decades and has had a terror risk named PKK for many years. The geopolitical risk indices were created from news based on the issues. The causality was tested using Toda-Yamamoto and asymmetric causality was tested using the Hatemi-J method in the period of 1998-2019. Findings of the study showed that there is unidirectional causality between global risks and tourist arrivals to Turkey, and bi-directional causality between domestic risk and tourist arrivals. Hatemi-J test results support the findings that the causality from positive shocks of risks causes negative shocks of tourist arrivals and vice versa. Herewith, it can be said that tourism demand to Turkey, in the context of foreign visitors, was affected by global or domestic geopolitical risks. This may be a sign that Turkey has a tourism-led terrorism problem targeting Turkey's tourism and economy.