Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Fincha Sub-Basin

The increasing human pressure on African regions is recognizable when looking at Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change maps, generally derived from satellite imagery. Using the Ethiopian Fincha watershed as a case study, the present work focuses on (i) identifying historical LULC change in the period 1989-2019; (ii) estimating LULC in the next thirty years, combining Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with Land Change Modelling (LCM). Landsat 5/8 images were combined with field evidence to map LULC in three reference years (1989, 2004, 2019), while the Multi-Layer Markov Chain (MPL-MC) model of LCM was applied to forecast LULC in 2030, 2040, and 2050. The watershed was classified into six classes: waterbody, grass/swamp, built-up, agriculture; forest; and shrub. The results have shown that, in the past 30 years, the Fincha watershed experienced a reduction in forest and shrubs of about -40% and -13%, respectively, mainly due to ever-increasing agricultural activities, and such a trend is also expected in the future. In fact, for the period 2019-2050, LCM simulated a significant decrease in both forest and shrubs (around -70% and -20%, respectively), in favor of more areas covered by grass (19%) and built-up (20%). It is worth noting that a decrease in natural forests can drive an increase in soil erosion, fostering siltation in the water reservoirs located in the sub-basin. The study pointed out the urgency of taking actions in the sub-basin to counteract such changes, which can eventually lead to a less sustainable environment.