Does the Low-Carbon Pilot Initiative Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from the Application of the Synthetic Control Method in Guangdong Province

As the world's top energy consumer and carbon emitter, China's carbon emissions policies, including the low-carbon pilot initiative (LCPI) implemented in July 2010, have important effects on global climate change. Therefore, accurately assessing the effect of this policy has become extremely important for low-carbon development. This article analyses the impact of implementing LCPI on regional carbon emissions by using Guangdong Province as the study area, which has the largest economic scale, population size and carbon emissions amongst China's low-carbon pilot provinces. The results suggest that for the entire 2010-2015 period, Guangdong's carbon emissions were reduced by about 10% due to the implementation of LCPI. This policy produced a significant impact on the carbon emissions from manufacturing industries but showed minimal impact on the carbon emissions from energy production. Unlike previous researchers who relied on estimations, the authors of this work obtained unified carbon emissions data for 1997-2015 from the China Emission Accounts and Datasets and then constructed comparison groups by using the synthetic control method instead of performing a subjective selection. The authors also examined the impact of LCPI on carbon emissions from different sources. This article proposes that policy support and low-carbon action are necessary for reducing regional carbon emissions and that the policies must be constantly adjusted during their implementation. The successful experiences in low-carbon pilots are also worth exploring and promoting in other regions.