Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour

被引：26

作者：

Fernandez-Navia, Tania ^{[1
]}

Polo-Muro, Eduardo ^{[2
,4
]}

Tercero-Lucas, David ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Compass Lexecon, Madrid, Spain

[2] Univ Basque Country, Leioa, Spain

[3] Autonomous Univ Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

[4] Univ Pablo de Olavide, Seville, Spain

来源：

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY | 2021年 / 69卷

关键词：

COVID-19; Elections; Voting behaviour; Turnout; Vote share; ELECTIONS; TERRORISM;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102012

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper studies the causal effect of local exposure to COVID-19 on voting behaviour and electoral outcomes using evidence from the regional elections held in Spain on 12 July 2020. Exploiting the variation in exposure to COVID-19 and using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that turnout was between 2.6 and 5.1 percentage points lower in municipalities that experienced positive cases of COVID-19. In addition, the results show a substantial increase in the probability of voting for nationalist parties. We discuss the idea of perceived fear being the potential mechanism driving our results.

引用

页数：21

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