A conceptual framework of volcanic evacuation simulation of Merapi using agent-based model and GIS

被引:20
|
作者
Jumadi [1 ,2 ]
Carver, Steve [1 ]
Quincey, Duncan [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
[2] Univ Muhammadiyah Surakarta, Fak Geog, Jl A Yani Tromol Pos 1, Surakarta, Indonesia
关键词
Volcanic risk management; evacuation modelling; agent-based modelling; GIS; Merapi; ERUPTION; BEHAVIOR; VULNERABILITY; TOOLS;
D O I
10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.06.092
中图分类号
TU98 [区域规划、城乡规划];
学科分类号
0814 ; 082803 ; 0833 ;
摘要
In volcanic crises, the ability of population to evacuate has important role to reduce the risk. Based on two experiences of crisis management of Merapi 2006 and 2010, it was reported that there are problems in this aspect that caused confusion of population during the crises which resulted in fatalities. Therefore, we propose a methodology to develop a simulation model to analyze population risk that can be used to highlight the probabilities of emerged problem during the evacuation. The methodology of this research will be highly relied on the GIS-ABM simulation. The simulation was developed from the relation of the volcano, surrounding population and stakeholder within the environmental system. Those elements are represented as agents with their attributes, roles, behaviour and properties. As an example of the application, we developed a simulation case study using Anylogic. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
引用
收藏
页码:402 / 409
页数:8
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