The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Relative Value of Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States

被引：0
|
作者：
Jones, Charles [1 ]
Carvalho, Leila M. V. [1 ,2 ]
Gottschalck, Jon [3 ]
Higgins, Wayne [3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Earth Res Inst, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
[2] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
[3] NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Protect, Climate Predict Ctr, Camp Springs, MD USA
来源：
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE | 2011年 / 24卷 / 10期
关键词：
MODULATION; SIMULATION; RAINFALL; EVENTS; IMPACT; SKILL; ENSO;
D O I：
10.1175/2011JCLI-D-10-05002
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability that impacts weather and climate. Forecast skill of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States (CON US) during winter is higher when the MJO is active and has enhanced convection over the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and/or the western Indian Ocean. This study applies a simple decision model to examine the relationships between the MJO and the relative value of deterministic forecasts of extreme precipitation. Value in the forecasts is significantly higher and extends to longer leads (2 weeks) during active MJO.
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页码：2421 / 2428
页数：8
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