Approximation of the Heat Fluxes Dynamics in the North Atlantic by Stochastic Diffusion Process

The observational data for 1979-2018 in the North Atlantic region are analyzed. The dataset contains gridded various information about the ocean and atmosphere parameters for 40 years from 1979 until 2018. The paper considers the heat flux data from this dataset (sum of latent and sensible heat fluxes) and represents this total flux as a diffusion stochastic process. The original method uses to estimate the coefficients of this process (drift and diffusion coefficients). The existence and uniqueness of the stochastic differential equation generated by the constructed diffusion process is proved. Then the seasonal and long-term variability of the field of heat fluxes is analyzed as a numerical solution of the corresponding stochastic differential equation. Based on the given series of 40 years in length from 1979 to 2018, some spatial maps and temporal curves were constructed. Numerical calculations realized on the Lomonosov-2 supercomputer of the Lomonosov Moscow State University.