Assessment of Uncertainty Effects in Integrated Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning: a Colombian Case Study

In this paper a set of hydrological, demand growth and fuel cost scenarios are constructed in order to analyze its impacts over long-term integrated transmission and generation planning (ITGP) in Colombia. This ITGP is a co-optimization based tool that makes the most cost-efficient solution in terms of transmission and generation considering security-related constraints as well as detailed hydro-thermal-renewable operating conditions on a yearly basis. This kind of tools are necessary in the Colombian context since the construction of new transmission projects is becoming more difficult due to environmental; thus, candidate transmission and generation projects compete each other in the co-optimization model in order to satisfy energy demand as well as guaranteeing cost-efficiency and high security and reliability levels. Finally, nine scenarios are carefully analyzed and evaluated in order to identify the most critical conditions for the operation of the power system under study.