Transition from mild cognitive impairment to normal cognition: Determining the predictors of reversion with multi-state Markov models

Introduction: The theoretical framework of the Alzheimer's disease continuum considers transition between stages in a unidirectional manner. Here we examine the rate of reversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to normal cognition (NC) and explore a set of potential variables associated with this phenomenon. Methods: A total of 985 Spanish community-dwelling individuals aged 70 years and over at baseline were monitored for 5 years. During this time, 173 MCI and 36 dementia cases were identified. Multi-state Markov models were performed to characterize transitions between states through the dementia continuum. Results: The rate of reversion from MCI to NC was 11%. There were significant non-modifiable (age, socioeconomic status, or apolipoprotein E) and modifiable factors (cognitive training or absence of affective symptoms) associated with reversion. Discussion: Overall, our results highlight that the likelihood of progression from MCI to dementia is very similar to that of reversion from MCI to NC.