The challenges of population ageing: accelerating demand for emergency ambulance services by older patients, 1995-2015

被引:148
|
作者
Lowthian, Judy A. [1 ]
Jolley, Damien J. [1 ]
Curtis, Andrea J.
Currell, Alexander [2 ]
Cameron, Peter A. [1 ]
Stoelwinder, Johannes U.
McNeil, John J.
机构
[1] Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Ctr Res Excellence Patient Safety, Melbourne, Vic 3004, Australia
[2] Ambulance Victoria, Strategy & Planning, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
基金
英国医学研究理事会;
关键词
ACCESS BLOCK; ALTERNATIVES; PERSPECTIVE; DEPARTMENTS; PATTERNS;
D O I
10.5694/j.1326-5377.2011.tb03107.x
中图分类号
R5 [内科学];
学科分类号
1002 ; 100201 ;
摘要
Objective: To measure the growth in emergency ambulance use across metropolitan Melbourne since 1995, to measure the impact of population growth and ageing on these services, and to forecast demand for these services in 2015. Design and setting: A population-based retrospective analysis of Ambulance Victoria's metropolitan emergency ambulance transportation data for the period from financial year 1994-95 to 2007-08, and modelling of demand in the financial year 2014-15. Main outcome measures: Numbers and rates of emergency ambulance transportations. Results: The crude annual rate of emergency transportations across all age groups increased from 32 per 1000 people in 1994-95 to 58 per 1000 people in 2007-08. The rate of transportation for all ages increased by 75% (95% CI, 62%-89%) over the 14-year study period, representing an average annual growth rate of 4.8% (95% CI, 4.3%-5.3%) beyond that explained by demographic changes. Patients aged >= 85 years were eight times (incident rate ratio, 7.9 [95% CI, 7.6-8.3]) as likely to be transported than those aged 45-69 years over this period. Forecast models suggest that the number of transportations will increase by 46%-69% between 2007-08 and 2014-15, disproportionately driven by increasing usage by patients aged >= 85 years. Conclusions: These findings confirm a dramatic rise in emergency transportations over the study period, beyond that expected from demographic changes. Rates increased across all age groups, but more so in older patients. In the future, such acceleration is likely to have major effects on ambulance services and acute hospital capacity. This calls for further investigation of underlying causes and alternative models of care. MJA 2011; 194:574-578
引用
收藏
页码:574 / 578
页数:5
相关论文
共 8 条
  • [1] Out-of-hours demand for GP care and emergency services: patients' choices and referrals by general practitioners and ambulance services
    Eric P Moll van Charante
    Pauline CE van Steenwijk-Opdam
    Patrick JE Bindels
    BMC Family Practice, 8
  • [2] Out-of-hours demand for GP care and emergency services: patients' choices and referrals by general practitioners and ambulance services
    van Charante, Eric P. Moll
    van Steenwijk-Opdam, Pauline C. E.
    Bindels, Patrick J. E.
    BMC FAMILY PRACTICE, 2007, 8 : 1 - 9
  • [3] Local trends in emergency department attendances by older patients in an ageing national population
    Chu, Kevin
    William, Anthony Brown
    Lukin, William
    AUSTRALIAN HEALTH REVIEW, 2009, 33 (01) : 117 - 123
  • [4] Trends in Neutropenia-Related Hospitalization in Older Patients with Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) Receiving Myelosuppressive Chemotherapy in the United States: 1995-2015
    Li, Shuling
    Liu, Jiannong
    Guo, Haifeng
    Gawade, Prasad L.
    Kim, Christopher
    Bensink, Mark E.
    Chandler, David
    BLOOD, 2018, 132
  • [5] Complications of HIV infection in an ageing population: challenges in managing older patients on long-term combination antiretroviral therapy
    Zhao, Hui
    Goetz, Matthew Bidwell
    JOURNAL OF ANTIMICROBIAL CHEMOTHERAPY, 2011, 66 (06) : 1210 - 1214
  • [6] No Improvement in Emergency Medical Services Use by Stroke Patients From 1999-2015: A Population-Based Study
    Li, James L.
    Sucharew, Heidi
    Alwell, Kathleen
    Broderick, Joseph P.
    Coleman, Elisheva
    La Rosa, Felipe De Los Rios
    Demel, Stacie L.
    Ferioli, Simona
    Flaherty, Matthew L.
    Jasne, Adam
    Khatri, Pooja
    Kissela, Brett M.
    Mackey, Jason
    Martini, Sharyl
    Mistry, Eva
    Moomaw, Charles J.
    Slavin, Sabreena J.
    Star, Michael
    Walsh, Kyle
    Woo, Daniel
    McMullan, Jason T.
    Kleindorfer, Dawn O.
    Adeoye, Opeolu
    STROKE, 2020, 51
  • [7] Profile of the ORION (Osaka emergency information Research Intelligent Operation Network system) between 2015 and 2016 in Osaka, Japan: a population-based registry of emergency patients with both ambulance and in-hospital records
    Okamoto, Jun
    Katayama, Yusuke
    Kitamura, Tetsuhisa
    Sado, Junya
    Nakamura, Ryuta
    Kimura, Nobuhiro
    Misaki, Hirotsugu
    Yamao, Shinpei
    Nakao, Shota
    Nitta, Masahiko
    Iwami, Taku
    Fujimi, Satoshi
    Kuwagata, Yasuyuki
    Shimazu, Takeshi
    Matsuoka, Tetsuya
    ACUTE MEDICINE & SURGERY, 2019, 6 (01): : 12 - 24
  • [8] Association between the level of municipality healthcare services and outcome among acutely older patients in the emergency department: a Danish population-based cohort study
    Tanderup, Anette
    Ryg, Jesper
    Rosholm, Jens-Ulrik
    Lassen, Annmarie Touborg
    BMJ OPEN, 2019, 9 (04):