Interregional migration, the housing market, and a spatial shift in the metro area: Interrelationships in the case study of Moscow

The mutual influence of interregional migrations, the housing market, and the spatial transformation of the Moscow metropolitan area are studied empirically using the database of housing development projects and the depersonalized database of the residence addresses of buyers in the primary housing market. We consider the influence of natural rent, agglomeration economy, interregional inequality, and distance on the differentiation of the activity of residents of various Russian regions and cities in the primary housing market of the Moscow metropolitan area compared to their migration activity. The main characteristics of the extensive development of the Moscow metropolitan area are the prevalence of large greenfield residential district projects, urban sprawl in the near suburban zone, and the concentration of construction along transport corridors in the middle suburban zone. Selective influence of buyers from other regions on various zones of the Moscow metropolitan area owes to their orientation at the most affordable proposals in the primary market. The near suburban zone is the main gate into the Moscow metropolitan area for migrants, and construction in this zone is a major mechanism of restricting housing prices and maintaining economic incentives for large-scale migration to the Moscow region. Proceeding from the generalization of factors of the spatial transformation of the Moscow metropolitan area, a conceptual model of interaction between migration and urban spatial shifts is proposed.