Adaptation to climate change via adjustment in land leasing: Evidence from dryland wheat farms in the US Pacific Northwest

Land leasing is a possible climate adaptation where risk is shared. We investigate how climate affects dryland wheat farmland rental patterns in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Using farm-level agricultural census data, we study the relationships between climate and leasing arrangements. We find that increases in precipitation reduce leased land and increase the use of cash-rent leases, while increases in precipitation variability reduce the prevalence of cash-rent leases. Using medium and high greenhouse-gas emission-based climate projections we predict that, by 2050, leased acreage will decline by 23% and, respectively 29%.