The Temporal (In)Stability of the Carbon Dioxide Emissions/Economic Development Relationship in Central and Eastern European Nations

Two sociological theories are engaged to assess the temporal (in) stability of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic development in Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations. Ecological modernization theory argues that while economic development harms the environment, the magnitude of the harmful link is likely to decrease through time. Treadmill of production theory posits that the association between environmental harms and development will remain constant or possibly increase in magnitude through time. To evaluate these competing propositions, interactions between economic development and time are used in analyses of three measures of CO2 emissions for 13 CEE nations during the 1992 to 2005 period. The results indicate that the magnitude of development's effect on all three outcomes increased through time, which supports the propositions of treadmill of production theory, while also suggesting that economic development in CEE nations became progressively less sustainable in the initial post-Soviet era.