A Statistical Analysis of Wind Speed Probabilistic Distributions for the Wind Power Assessment in Different Regions

The penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) into the electricity supply is gaining popularity all over the world, including countries that have large oil and gas reserves, since only the development of alternative energy will help avoid regression and take a green path development, reducing the damage to the environment. According to estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the capacity of RES units built in China in 2016 was 34 GW, and Australia is one of the world leaders in the photovoltaic power plants installation, the share of which in the Australian electricity production exceeds 3%. It should be noted, that the final power generation capacity and stability are stochastic (probabilistic) in nature. Unlike the classical type generator, the output RES characteristics depend on the geographical features of the installation area, the season, and prevailing winds. Risks associated with inaccurate knowledge of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) describing these sources, as well as environmental uncertainties, are the reasons why it is more difficult for distribution network operators (DNO) to take RES into account in the power balance calculations. The wind speed CDF clarification can provide significant assistance in predicting the RES power production.