Modeling location choices of housing builders in the greater Toronto, Canada, area

An analysis of the spatial choice of housing builders in the greater Toronto area (GTA), Canada, is presented. A spatially disaggregate database of 126,462 new housing units built by 445 builders is used to analyze the determinants of the intrametropolitan location of new housing. Housing starts are classified into four types: single-family detached (SFD), semidetached, condominiums, and row-link housing. An accessibility analysis shows that the GTA remains a monocentric region where accessibility for most activities declines with distance from the central business district. The location choice of homebuilders differs by housing type. For instance, the construction of new condominiums is more likely to be in high-density areas with high accessibility to jobs. Similarly, the likelihood of construction of low-rise (SFD or semidetached) housing is higher in low-density areas with low accessibility to work and other activities. Neighborhood attributes help determine the type of housing likely to be built in the vicinity. Also, the location of low-rise residential units and planned residential construction is influenced by proximity to major transport corridors in the GTA. The location of condominiums is influenced by proximity to the subway system. Builders are attracted to zones with higher dwelling values, where they can obtain higher values for their products. Spatial inertia in housing markets is presented, which implies that the presence of a certain type of housing attracts more housing of that type to the vicinity.