Climate Variability and its impacts on runoff in the Kosasthaliyar sub-basin, India

Research on the effect of climate variability/climate change on runoff is limited in humid tropical regions. Climate change has implications beyond the water resources sector, such as effects on agriculture and fisheries. Hence, such studies are becoming increasingly important. This study uses both historical field data and future climate forecasts from General Circulation Model Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 GCM HadCM3. These data are further downscaled using third generation of the Hadley Centre's regional climate model (HadRM3), with Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) software under the three Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections (QUMPs) with a horizontal resolution of 25 km X 25 km by the Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation Research, Anna University Chennai, for the state of Tamil Nadu. These downscaled data are used to study runoff changes due to climate change for the Kosasthaliyar sub-basin in South India. A trend analysis of the hydro-meteorological data for the sub-basin indicates that future rainfall is expected to decrease by approximately 10%, while the mean temperatures will increase by the year 2100. The runoff changes from 2011 to 2040 are not perceptible when compared to the historical period of 1971 to 2000. This study attempts to provide information on climate variability and its impacts on runoff in the Kosasthaliyar sub-basin.