An assessment of temperature simulations by CMIP6 climate models over the Tibetan Plateau and differences with CMIP5 climate models

被引:16
|
作者
Hu, Qin [1 ,2 ]
Hua, Wei [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Yang, Kaiqing [1 ]
Ming, Jing [1 ]
Ma, Pan [1 ]
Zhao, Yong [1 ]
Fan, Guangzhou [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan, Peoples R China
[2] Plateau Atmosphere & Environm Key Lab Sichuan Pro, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan, Peoples R China
[3] Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Meteorol Disaster Predict & Warning Engn Lab Sich, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE; CHINA; UNCERTAINTIES; PERFORMANCE; DATASET; TRENDS;
D O I
10.1007/s00704-022-03944-6
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Based on observational data from 1961 to 2014, the ability of 20 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate surface air temperature climatology and variability over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is evaluated. The possible difference between the simulations of CMIP6 models and temperature simulations by models participating in the fifth phase of the CMIP (CMIP5) over the TP is also examined. The results reveal that most GCMs have the ability to reproduce climatological patterns and seasonal spatial variations in the surface air temperature. However, most GCMs have a cold bias, with a mean underestimation of 0.05-8.28 degrees C, and the multimodel ensemble means (MME) and medians of 20 GCMs underestimate the climatological mean over the TP by approximately 2.51 degrees C and 2.22 degrees C for 1961-2014. Regarding annual temperature, the top five GCMs with the least amount of bias for both the spatial distribution and regional-averaged temperature are NESM3, UKESM1.0-LL, CESM2, HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, and GISS-ES.1-G. The cold bias of GCMs over the eastern TP is smaller than that over the TP, and the cold bias is more serious over the western TP. The MME and multimodel median values of 20 GCMs are - 2.00 degrees C and - 1.94 degrees C over the eastern TP, respectively, while they are - 3.00 degrees C and - 2.35 degrees C over the western TP. Regarding seasonal temperature, outputs from CMIP6 GCMs also reveal a significant cold bias over the western TP that is particularly prominent in spring and winter. Compared with CIMP5 simulations, the CIMP6 models seem to show very limited improvement over the TP. Cold bias is more serious for annual, spring, summer, and winter simulations in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, especially over the western TP. Nevertheless, the simulations of the geographical distribution of annual and seasonal temperatures are further improved in CMIP6. Moreover, over the northeastern TP, such as Tsaidam Basin and Qilian Mountain, GCMs from CMIP6 show slight improvement.
引用
收藏
页码:223 / 236
页数:14
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