The J-curve and NAFTA: evidence from commodity trade between the US and Mexico

被引：28
|
作者：
Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen [1 ]
Hegerty, Scott W. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Res Int Econ, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
[2] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Econ, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
来源：
APPLIED ECONOMICS | 2011年 / 43卷 / 13期
关键词：
BILATERAL J-CURVE; EXCHANGE-RATE SENSITIVITY; UNITED-STATES; BALANCE; DEVALUATION; COINTEGRATION; GROWTH; RATES; LIBERALIZATION; DOLLAR;
D O I：
10.1080/00036840802360328
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was predicted to have a substantial impact on the US-Mexico trade, especially on specific importing and exporting industries. In this article, we use annual industry-level export and import data from 1962 to 2004 to discern both the short- and long-run effects of real exchange-rate depreciation on the Mexico-US trade balance, as well as the effects of NAFTA on this trade. We find that peso depreciation has a positive long-run effect on 24 of 102 Mexican industries and a negative short-run effect on 19 of 102 industries. Only a small fraction (7 of 102 industries) show any support for the J-curve hypothesis. NAFTA has had a significant effect on a significant number of the industries, however.
引用
收藏
页码：1579 / 1593
页数：15
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