A consensus for the development of a low carbon economy in China is growing rapidly among Chinese energy stakeholders. But there is considerable uncertainty as to the role that carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofit could play in this development. The State Council in China has set a target of cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40% by 2020 compared with the level for 2005. Although this provides some policy impetus for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in China, it is also important to note that over 350 GW of coal-fired power plant capacity has been built within the past five years and that these power plants are expected to operate for at least another 25 years. Because coal is an affordable and accessible fuel in China, both the China Electricity Council (CEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that another 300 GW of supercritical and ultra-supercritical new coal-fired power plants will be constructed in the next decade to satisfy the growing energy demand of the country ([1,2]). But unless other options to reduce emissions can be implemented, a simple consideration of the emissions they produce suggests that some of these recently built power plants may be required to shut down within the next two decades to address Chinese and/or international climate policies. During the past five years, the national policy of 'closing smaller and/or inefficient units to build large and more efficient units' has been implemented not only to save energy, but also to reduce specific carbon dioxide emissions (i.e. reduced gCO(2)/kWh of electricity produced). Forcing early plant closure has, however, proved to be a difficult task under the institutional framework of the Chinese electricity sector, because these plants usually had not reached the end of their design lifetimes. Also it was only partially successful in the context of CO2 reduction in the sense that companies wanted to build large plants to increase electrical output and strict rules meant they could only do this by closing a specified amount of older plant. But the end result was still that more coal was burnt and hence total CO2 emissions to atmosphere increased. Retrofitting some of the existing power plants to capture CO2, which by contrast can achieve an absolute decrease in CO2 emissions to atmosphere for an analogous loss in plant output (to the closures previously enforced) is therefore, an important option to address the threat of climate change while maintaining in the meantime the country's electricity supply from coal. A preliminary investigation of over 100 large power plants in China was conducted to determine their potential for a retrofit with CO2 capture, transport and storage. Factors assessed included geographic location, space on site, plant layout, water restriction, coal supply, efficiency, FGD status and potential access to storage sites. Based on these criteria, retrofitting prospects were evaluated and rated. It appears that about 45% of existing power plants may suffer from 'carbon lock-in' status, i.e. their emissions could not be abated using CCS technology, at least at 'reasonable' cost. Critical factors that would preclude capture retrofit are, not surprisingly, access to storage sites and unsuitable plant layout and/or space on site. Variations in other factors would affect the level of retrofitting cost, but this effect could be positive as well as negative. In principle, plants would be retrofitted in an order that reflects the extent to which these site specific factors would give higher or lower retrofit costs. The results aim to provide an overview of the potential issues that need to be considered by stakeholders, policy makers and manufacturing companies when deciding the market potential for CCS retrofit technology in China. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
