Economic losses to sustainable timber production by fire in the Brazilian Amazon

Although still the largest expanse of tropical rainforests in the world, the Amazon is suffering a declining capacity to deliver ecosystem services, to which the widespread use of fire is one of the main contributing factors. Even if fires directly affect the timber sector, most current logging practices often tend to increase rather than mitigate the problem. We argue that in order to involve the timber sector in fire mitigation policies in the Amazon it is crucial to assess the economic impact of fire on the sector. This paper describes EcoFire (Economic Cost of Fire), a spatially explicit model for valuing the economic losses to sustainable timber harvest operations in the Brazilian Amazon as a result of fire. To conduct this analysis, we have integrated a set of models that simulate the synergy between logging and fire spread and intensity. Our results show that fire affects roughly 2% of the timber production areas that would be harvested between 2012 and 2041. In burnt areas, fire causes losses on average of US$39 +/- 2 ha/year (equivalent annual annuity), which represents a loss of 0.8% of expected rents. Yet losses can reach up to US$183 +/- 30 ha/year in areas hit by recurrent fires that are near milling centres. The results indicate that some of the municipalities that are likely to accumulate most economic losses due to fire do not yet have local-level fire mitigation programmes. We therefore conclude that spatially explicit valuations of the economic impact of fire can pinpoint priorities to better target fire action plans as well as to engage local actors in integrated fire management practices.