MODELING SUBJECT-SPECIFIC NONAUTONOMOUS DYNAMICS

We consider modeling non-autonomous dynamical systems for a group of subjects. The proposed model involves a common baseline gradient function and a multiplicative time-dependent subject-specific effect that accounts for phase and amplitude variations in the rate of change across subjects. The baseline gradient function is represented in a spline basis and the subject-specific effect is modeled as a polynomial in time with random coefficients. We establish appropriate identifiability conditions and propose an estimator based on the hierarchical likelihood. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator under a regime of moderate-to-dense observations per subject. Simulation studies and an application to the Berkeley Growth Data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.