Impacts of climate change on Missouri River Basin water yield

Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO2 climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall-runoff model. RegCM output from a five-year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO2 levels was compared to a similar present-day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50-km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasins in the rainfall-runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall-runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cin of runoff on an annual basis.