Intermittent social distancing strategy for epidemic control

被引:66
|
作者
Valdez, L. D. [1 ]
Macri, P. A. [1 ]
Braunstein, L. A. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Nacl Mar del Plata, Inst Invest Fis Mar del Plata IFIMAR, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, CONICET,Dept Fis, RA-7600 Mar Del Plata, Argentina
[2] Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
关键词
NETWORKS; PERCOLATION;
D O I
10.1103/PhysRevE.85.036108
中图分类号
O35 [流体力学]; O53 [等离子体物理学];
学科分类号
070204 ; 080103 ; 080704 ;
摘要
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered model. In our model, based on local information, a susceptible individual interrupts the contact with an infected individual with a probability sigma and restores it after a fixed time t(b). We find that, depending on the network topology, in our social distancing strategy there exists a cutoff threshold sigma(c) beyond which the epidemic phase disappears. Our results are supported by a theoretical framework and extensive simulations of the model. Furthermore we show that this strategy is very efficient because it leads to a "susceptible herd behavior" that protects a large fraction of susceptible individuals. We explain our results using percolation arguments.
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页数:7
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