Safe marginal time of crude oil price via escape problem of econophysics

Market timing for determining the trading time point and the measurement and prediction of safe holding time is of great theoretical significance and practical value in risk management. Based on statistical physics and escape problems, we put forward the safe marginal time to depict the trading safe area and holding time size, and the theoretical method for risk management is given. Combining with the NYMEX crude oil price index, we make a comparative study between the theoretical and real results of the safe marginal time series. Then we further discuss the predictability of the safe marginal time series through the method of information entropy. The results indicate: (1) the characteristics of safe marginal time is an exponential distribution; (2) the marginal time of safety is positively correlated with price return and negatively correlated with risk; (3) there is an optimal critical initial return that maximizes the expectation and variance of the safe marginal time. In addition, the predictability of safe marginal time has a nonlinear relationship with transaction conditions, and there are some optimal trading conditions that greatly enhances the predictability of safe marginal time. This study provides a method to deal with time series and measure risks from the perspective of safe marginal time. It can provide a reference for investors to measure and predict risks and provide early warning from the perspective of safe marginal time for risk management. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.