Educational trajectories. Evidence from Uruguay

This article analyzes the relevance of potential predictors of 15-year-old adolescents' decision to attend secondary school, go to vocational school or drop out. We conclude that in addition to socioeconomic characteristics, there are other factors that contribute to predicting attendance choices, namely educational attainment in the early stages of primary school, expectations regarding future studies, preferences for particular subjects, and the self-perception of various academic skills as expressed during the latter grades of primary school. These dimensions could be considered as leading indicators that contribute to the design of policies aimed at reducing school dropout. Performance in math, reading and science at early stages of primary school is negatively correlated with the probability of dropping out at junior high.