A new approach to calculating Holocene winter precipitation by combining glacier equilibrium-line altitudes and pine-tree limits: A case study from Hardangerjokulen, central southern Norway

At Hardangerjokulen, central southern Norway, detailed knowledge of the number, age and magnitude of Holocene glacier fluctuations is used to reconstruct variations in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) for the last 10000 years; Present and past ELAs are based on an accumulation-area ratio (AAR) of 0.7 and are adjusted for land uplift. A synchronous relationship between advanced glacier positions and the highest pine-tree limits (Pinus sylvestris L.) is demonstrated for the early to mid-Holocene in southern Scandinavia, which indicates that warm summers were compensated for by high winter precipitation. Based on pine-tree limit fluctuations as a measure of mean ablation-season temperature, Holocene variations in winter precipitation at Hardangerjokulen have been calculated by substitution in the close exponential relationship between mean ablation-season temperature and winter precipitation at the ELA of Norwegian glaciers. Setting the winter precipitation during the period AD 1961-1990 at 100%, mean values varied from about 65 to c. 175%. The wettest phase, at c. 8500-8300 cal. BP, experienced a mean summer temperature of c. 1.35 degrees C warmer than at present, and may be regarded as a climatic analogue for the increase in precipitation which may accompany greenhouse warming of the atmosphere during the next century. These early-Holocene 'greenhouse centuries' ended abruptly within 30-50 years, and changed into a climatic regime dominated by dry winters and by summers only a little warmer than at present. The transition is synchronous with the most notable delta(18)O minimum recorded in Greenland ice cores at 8210+/-30 years ago (before AD 1990), and is tentatively suggested as a Holocene analogue for the climatic instability (which may have been) recorded in the GRIP ice core during the last interglacial period (the Eemian).