MISCELLANEA ON POSSIBLE CAUSES OF GLOBAL WARMING

被引：0
|
作者：
Privalsky, V. E. [1 ]
Fortus, M. I. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Zubov State Oceanog Inst, Moscow 119034, Russia
[2] RAN, Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Moscow 119017, Russia
来源：
THEORY OF PROBABILITY AND ITS APPLICATIONS | 2012年 / 56卷 / 02期
关键词：
statistical simulation; natural climatic variability; climatic spectra;
D O I：
10.1137/S0040585X97985418
中图分类号：
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号：
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要：
Using the data of instrumental observations from 1850 to 2009, a stationary probabilistic model of variations of the global Earth surface temperature is built, and it is shown by the Monte Carlo method that the recurrence time of phenomena similar to the current global warming constitutes less than 500 years, which is not much for climate variability. This means that there is no need to include any external forcing such as anthropogenic effects in order to explain the current climate variations.
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页码：313 / 317
页数：5
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