Effect of consumer sentiment on hospitality expenditures and stock returns

Given the importance of consumers to the U.S. economy and especially to the hospitality industry, we explore how consumer sentiment (i.e. confidence in the economy) affects consumption expenditures and stock returns in the hospitality industry. We find that not only does consumer sentiment partly predict changes in future consumption expenditures, but changes in consumer sentiment are contemporaneously related to hospitality industry stock returns. More importantly, our results indicate that changes in consumer sentiment can partly predict changes in stock prices of hospitality firms, an indicator of firm performance. The predictive ability of consumer sentiment can thus be useful to managers in business forecasting, planning, and strategizing for profit maximization. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.