Multi-Stage Stochastic Electrification Planning under Demand Uncertainty

A novel multi-stage stochastic electrification planning model for Sub-Saharan African countries is developed by involving both centralized and decentralized infrastructure, considering future demand uncertainty. A case study of Rwanda shows that for projected annual demand increase rates ranging from 4% to 7% from 2022 to 2028, a deterministic production planning model costs US$1.94B and can result in 25% underbuilt to 49% overbuilt; a two-stage stochastic model reduces over- and under-build risks and costs an expected US $2.09B; the multistage stochastic electrification model also reduces risks and costs US$1.97, a 6% reduction compared to the two-stage model.