Asymmetric impact of oil price shock on economic uncertainty: evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model

The aim of this article is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the oil price on economic policy uncertainty for the period from January 1997 to May 2021 using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach. The results of the bounds test indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the economic uncertainty index and oil price. Furthermore, we conclude that the long-run equilibrium relationship is a usual logical relationship and not a degraded relationship. The results of the asymmetric effects in the short and long term also showed that the positive and negative shocks to oil prices have an asymmetric effect on the EPU index. In addition, the negative shock may have a greater absolute effect in the long run. Our results are important to both investors interested in the oil market, as well as for policymakers.