A coupled model for simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use change: A case study in Changqing, Jinan, China

General land-use planning in China aims to allocate land use quantitatively on a temporal scale and explicitly on a spatial scale. Therefore, for decision-making, planners need to know the specific land demands under different scenarios and their spatio-temporal dynamics. However, it is not easy to obtain the above knowledge due to the complex and dynamic characteristics of the land use system and the limitations of current models in taking both the temporal and spatial driving factors into consideration. To address these issues, this study coupled the system dynamics model (SD) and the model for the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) to simulate the land-use change in Changqing District, Jinan, China. The objectives are: (1) to develop the SD model to simulate the land-use demands on a macro-scale as a whole for the period 1997-2005, (2) to improve the presentation of the land use change processes based on the CLUE-S model that will transfer and allocate land demands from the SD model to spatially explicit land use patterns, and (3) to discuss the local land-use dynamics. Our results show that the coupled model could provide information on the specific local land use demands under different developing scenarios, the dynamics of their spatio-temporal changes, and the growth and decline of urban land and farm land. While the results of our study have been applied in local land-use plans, planners should note that the results based on the coupled model are just a "scenario" under specific conditions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.