Tidal response to sea level rise and bathymetric changes in the German Wadden Sea

Tidally dominated coasts are directly affected not only by projected rise in mean sea level, but also by changes in tidal dynamics due to sea level rise and bathymetric changes. By use of a hydrodynamic model, which covers the entire German Bight (South-Eastern North Sea), we analyse the effects of sea level rise and potential bathymetric changes in the Wadden Sea on tidal current velocities. The model results indicate that tidal current velocities in the tidal inlets and channels of the Wadden Sea are increased in response to sea level rise. This is explained by the increased ratio of tidal prism to tidal inlet cross-sectional area, which is due to the characteristic hypsometry of tidal basins in the Wadden Sea including wide and shallow tidal flats and relatively narrow tidal channels. The results further indicate that sea level rise decreases ebb dominance and increases flood dominance in tidal channels. This is, amongst others, related to a decreased intertidal area again demonstrating the strong interaction between tidal wave and tidal basin hypsometry in the Wadden Sea. The bathymetry scenario defined in this study includes elevated tidal flats and deepened tidal channels, which is considered a potential future situation under accelerated sea level rise. Application of these bathymetric changes to the model mostly compensates the effects of sea level rise. Furthermore, changes in current velocity due to the altered bathymetry are in the same order of magnitude as changes due to mean sea level rise. This highlights the significance of considering potential bathymetric changes in the Wadden Sea for regional projections of the tidal response to sea level rise.