Economic impacts of regional water scarcity in the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil: an application of a linked hydro-economic model

This paper presents a linked hydro-economic model and uses it to examine the regional effects of water use regulations and product price changes on the agriculture of the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil. The effects of weather on surface water availability are explicitly addressed using the hydrological model MIKE-Basin. Farmers' adjustments to changes in precipitation, surface water availability, and other factors are quantified using an economic model based on non-linear programming techniques. The models are externally linked. Results show that regional impacts, at the sub-basin level, vary depending on the location of each sub-basin relative to river flows. The effects of water use regulations and of exogenous price shocks on agriculture depend on weather, location, product mix and production technology. Implications of these results for policies designed to manage agriculture and water use are discussed.