Impact of climate change on the seasonal distribution of runoff in mountainous basics in Slovakia

The potential impact of a changed climate on river basin runoff in mountainous regions in Slovakia was evaluated using a simulation of the runoff changes, carried out using a monthly time step. Several basins were selected as representative areas for various types of seasonal runoff distribution. Precipitation and temperature input into the model were spatially averaged over the basin using a geographical information system. The model used two climate scenarios for this impact study. It was calibrated with data from a standard period, considered to be representative for the distribution of runoff in unchanged conditions. All scenarios show a similar trend in monthly runoff changes, with the maximum increase usually occurring in January or February. The biggest discharge decline in the northern basins falls in the spring months, in southern basins the decline shifts to the summer months.