Labor Shrinkage and its Driving Forces in China from 1990 to 2015: A Geographical Analysis

Labor change in China has reached a turning point, and labor shrinkage and its related issues have widely attracted attention in recent years. However, studies that examine labor shrinkage and its driving forces from a geographical perspective are still limited. This study analyzed the trends and spatial differences of labor shrinkage at national and various regional scales from 1990 to 2015, and then investigated the driving forces behind these processes by combining the variables of migration and demographic structural change. We found that labor shrinkage areas at the subnational level have increased significantly in the period from 2010 to 2015. We also found that they first emerged in the Central and Western regions, and then gradually expanded to the Coastal and Northeast regions. Although migration still matters, dramatic demographic structural changes have played an increasingly important role in explaining the recent trend of labor shrinkage. Moreover, the driving forces varied in different local contexts: while lagging economic and employment growth have been the main drivers of labor shrinkage in the Central and Western regions, many shrinkage areas in the Coastal region can be linked to the decline of the youth population on the one hand and an aging population on the other hand. These findings highlight the geographic heterogeneity of labor shrinkage as well as the driving forces at regional levels, and they recommend that local governments take differentiated measures to address labor shrinkage.