Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection

被引：2
|
作者：
Rusin, Tomasz M. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Polish Acad Sci, Inst Phys, Al Lotnikow 32-46, PL-02688 Warsaw, Poland
来源：
KNOWLEDGE-BASED AND INTELLIGENT INFORMATION & ENGINEERING SYSTEMS (KSE 2021) | 2021年 / 192卷
关键词：
Covid-19; Epidemic forecast; Short-time forecast; Distance between trajectories;
D O I：
10.1016/j.procs.2021.09.102
中图分类号：
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号：
0812 ;
摘要：
Robust method of short-term forecast of Covid-19 epidemic in small administrative units (districts) is proposed. By identifying similar sections of epidemic evolutions in the past it is possible to obtain short-term forecast of epidemic in given district. Examples of one and two-weeks forecasts for three cities in Poland during third epidemic wave (March and April 2021) are shown. Difference between epidemic evolutions in third wave and previous waves caused by Covid B.1.1.7 UK variant is observed. Proposed algorithm allows one to manage epidemic locally by entering or releasing anti-Covid restrictions in groups of small administrative units. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
引用
收藏
页码：3291 / 3299
页数：9
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