Serious offending and the management of public risk in New Zealand

Amendments to New Zealand's Criminal Justice Act 1985 have produced a twin track policy similar inform to that operating in England and Wales. The theoretical or empirical validity of these measures is examined and data from New Zealand used to test core assumptions of the policy: in particular: (1) that future harmful behaviour-dangerousness-is adequately described or predicted by current behaviour; (2) that in the long run public exposure to risk of serious crime is most effectively reduced by longer periods of imprisonment and (3) that comprehensive programmes of post-release supervision and rehabilitation are equally appropriate to all prisoners as a means of reducing risk of further offending. Not one of these assumptions was clearly supported by the data or the literature on offending behaviour. The findings are discussed and factors affecting the development of policies against violence in New Zealand are suggested.