Correlation between the tilt anomaly on the vertical pendulum at the Songpan station and the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo earthquake in Qinghai province, China

Understanding the relationship between precursory deformation anomalies and strong earthquakes is vital for physical earthquake prediction. Six months before the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo earthquake in Qinghai province, China, the vertical pendulum at the Songpan station was observed to tilt southward with a high rate and large amplitude. Studies conducted before the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo earthquake inferred the tilt anomaly to be an earthquake precursor. However, after the earthquake, the relation between the earthquake and the anomaly became controversial, partly because the Songpan station is located at a great distance from the epicenter. In this study, based on the deformation anomaly characteristics, relationship between the seismogenic fault and the fault near the anomaly, and associated quantitative analyses, we concluded that this anomaly may be associated with the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo earthquake. The duration and amplitude of this anomaly matched with the magnitude and epicenter distance of the Maduo earthquake. We have also interpreted the reason why the anomaly occurred near a fault that is obliquely intersected with the seismogenic fault and why the anomaly is located far from the earthquake epicenter.